Market Outlook

Rupee opened the session on weak note but recovered gradually during the session.

Markets are awaited for the monetary decisions from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, the latter of which is expected to announce new stimulus measures. Some other key economic indicators are also lined up to be released in this week; majorly towards the latter half of the week including first quarter GDP reports from the U.K. and U.S. and inflation data from the eurozone.

Fundamental News

  • Yen gains versus dollar as BOJ, Fed meetings loom.
  • United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals registered at 45.096K, below expectations (46.1K) in March.
  • Italy Trade Balance non-EU increased to €4.04B in March from previous €2.62B.
  • Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous -0.1% to 0.8% in March.




Reference Rate



After the consecutive three day hike in the counter, Rupee found some strength against the dollar.

It opened on strong note but strong rebounding was seen in the pair which gradually took it towards the two days lows’.

On daily charts, it is facing stiff resistance around 100 day EMA i.e. 67.0000 and today’s rebounding from higher levels shows probability of short reversals from current levels and now 66.3000-66.0500 is seen as support range for USDINR while strict resistance is still maintained near 67.0000.



The pair is strongly consolidating in the same tight range since last four consecutive sessions and another noticeable thing is that it is constantly facing resistance at higher levels and closing at lower levels.

On daily charts, a trend line is seen coming from recent lows which is acting as strong support and if it provides negative breakout on daily charts then free fall can be seen in the counter below 74.8000 and it may find next support near 100 day EMA i.e. 74.4000. On higher side, 75.7500 is acting as major resistance from current levels.



It was stupendous rally so shown by GBPINR in the last five consecutive sessions.

It was a gap up opening for the day and the pair was able to sustain on higher side for the whole intraday session.

On daily charts, it has been observed that it showed strong pull back from the lower band of channel pattern and has reached towards the 100 day EMA which may act as critical point for the counter. From current levels, 97.2000 is seen as key resistance while any closing below 96.5000 can trigger for selling pressure.



It has shown bearish rally since last five consecutive sessions facing constant resistance at higher levels.

It was a gap up opening for the pair but it was unable to sustain at higher levels and soon dragged lower and breached the previous day’s lows also.

On daily chart, strong rebounding is seen from 52 week highs and the counter strongly dropped down. Trend line is seen in the chart coming from recent lows and any breakout from such levels i.e. 59.8800 and any closing below it can further negate the sentiments and may drop towards the nearest support of 59.6000-59.4000. On higher side, resistance so seen is 60.3000-60.5000.

Intraday Super Star


GBPINR surpassed the trend line on daily charts so coming from highs as seen in the chart above. It has also faced resistance of psychological levels of 97.0000. Bullishness may continue above this level.

BUY ABOVE 97.0000 TARGETS 97.1500/97.3000 SL 96.8000.

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