Highlights

 

  •  Indian Rupee appreciated around 1 percent in yesterday’s trade.
  •  Euro Zone’s Trade Balance jumped to 14.3 billion Euros in Sept’13.
  •  US TIC Long-Term Purchases increased by $25.5 billion in September.

 

Asian markets are trading on a positive note today on the back of expectations that China’s economic reforms will boost the growth coupled with ease in QE tapering concerns from the Federal Reserve after Janet Yellen statement in last week.

 

US Dollar Index

 

The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.1 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk appetite in market sentiments in early part of the trade which led to fall in demand for low yielding currency. Further, statement from Federal Reserve nominee Janet Yellen in last week that stimulus measures to be maintained until improvement is seen in the US economy exerted downside pressure on the currency. The DX touched an intra-day low of 80.60 and closed at 80.83 on Monday.

 

US Treasury International Capital (TIC) Long-Term Purchases increased by $25.5 billion in September as against a decline of $9.8 billion in August. National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index remained unchanged at 54-mark in the month of November.

 

Dollar/INR

 

The Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.9 percent yesterday on the back of rising inflow of foreign funds. Further, upbeat domestic market sentiments supported an upside in the currency. Additionally, relaxing of economic reforms in China coupled with ease in QE tapering concerns after statement from Federal Reserve nominee Janet Yellen in last week to continue with stimulus measures until US economy improves acted as a positive factor. The currency touched an intra-day high of 62.37 closed at 62.41 on Monday.

 

 

For the month of November 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.5599.90 crores ($897.91 million) as on 18th November 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.94533.60 crores ($17096.80 million) till 18th November 2013.

 

Outlook

 

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to trade on a positive note on the back of upbeat market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX which will lead to appreciation in the currency. Further, rising inflow of foreign funds will support an upside in the currency. However, long term worries on macroeconomic fundamentals still persists which will cap sharp gains in the Indian Rupee.

 

Technical Outlook valid for November 19, 2013

 

Trend Support Resistance

 

US Dollar/INR Nov’13 (NSE/MCX-SX)

 

Down 62.20/62.00 62.80/62.95

 

Euro/INR

 

The Euro appreciated around 0.1 percent yesterday on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat market sentiments in early part of the trade supported an upside in the currency.

 

Additionally, favorable economic data from the region acted as a positive factor. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3541 and closed at 1.3503 on Monday.

 

Euro Zone’s Current Account declined to 13.7 billion Euros in September from 17.9 billion Euros in August. Trade Balance rose to 14.3 billion Euros in September from 12.3 billion Euros in August.

 

Outlook

 

In today’s session, we expect Euro to trade higher on account of upbeat market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of favorable economic sentiments data from the region will support an upside in the currency.

 

 

 

Technical Outlook valid for November 19, 2013

 

Trend Support Resistance

 

Euro/INR Nov’13 (NSE/MCX-SX)

 

Down 84.40/84.20 84.70/84.90

 

GBP/INR

 

The Sterling Pound declined by around 0.1 percent as the investors are awaiting minutes of monetary policy meeting were Bank of England held interest rates at record low levels.

 

Also, weak global market sentiments in later part of the trade acted as negative factor for the currency. The Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.608 and closed at 1.6108 on Monday.

 

Outlook

 

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Pound to trade on a positive note on account of upbeat market sentiments. Additionally, a weaker DX will also act as a positive factor for the Sterling Pound.

 

Technical Outlook valid for November 19, 2013

 

Trend Support Resistance

 

GBP/INR Nov’13 (NSE/MCX-SX)

 

Down 100.75/100.50 101.00/101.20

 

JPY/INR

 

The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.2 percent yesterday on the back ofweak global market sentiments in later part of the trade that led to a rise in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 99.77 and closed at 99.98 on Monday.

 

 

Outlook

 

Depreciation in the Yen is expected in today’s trade as a result of rise in risk appetite in market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency.

 

Technical Outlook valid for November 19, 2013

 

Trend Support Resistance

 

JPY/INR Nov’13 (NSE/MCX-SX)

 

Down 62.40/62.20 62.70/62.80

Courtesy: angel broking

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