Highlights

  •  US Building Permits increased by 1.03 million in the month of Oct.
  • Indian Rupee trade on a flat note & erased gains in yesterday’s trade.
  • US CB Consumer Confidence slipped to 70.4-level in current month.

Asian markets are trading on a negative note today on the back of unexpected decline in consumer confidence data from the US in yesterday’s trade. While on the other hand, expectations of delay in QE tapering by the Federal Reserve cushioned sharp downside in the markets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.4 percent in yesterday’s trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in market sentiments in later part of the trade which led to fall in demand for low yielding currency. Further, expectations of delay in QE tapering by the Federal Reserve after unexpected decline in consumer confidence data from the US indicating a slow economic growth added downside pressure in the currency. The DX touched an intra-day low of 80.62 and closed at 80.64 on Tuesday.

US Building Permits increased by 0.97 million in September as against a rise of 0.93 million in August. Building Permits gained by 1.03 million in October from 0.97 million a month ago. The Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence slipped by 2 points to 70.4-level in current month from 72.4-mark in last month.

Dollar/INR

The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note in yesterday’s trading session. The currency appreciated in early part of the trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Additionally, ease of sanction on Iran led to upbeat market sentiments in earlier trade and supported an upside in the currency.

Dollar demand from oil refiners and importers in later part of the trade erased all its gains and exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, weak market sentiments coupled with expectations of slow inflow of foreign funds acted as a negative factor. The currency touched an intra-day high of 62.188 and closed at 62.50 on Tuesday.

For the month of November 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.8378 crores ($1342.63 million) as on 26th November 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.97311.70 crores ($17541.60 million) till 26th November 2013.

 

Outlook

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to trade on a mixed note on the back of weak market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Further, dollar demand from corporate and oil firms coupled with estimates of slow inflow of foreign funds will exert downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside will be cushion or reversal can be seen as a result of selling of dollars by state run banks. Additionally, expectations of rise in country’s GDP data during the week will act as a positive factor.

Technical Chart – USD/INR

Technical Outlook valid for November 27, 2013 Trend Support Resistance US Dollar/INR Nov’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 62.40/62.20 62.70/62.85

Euro/INR

The Euro appreciated around 0.4 percent in yesterday’s trading session on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat market sentiments in later part of the trade supported an upside in the currency.

The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3574 and closed at 1.3571 on Tuesday.

Outlook

In today’s session, we expect Euro to trade lower on account of weak market sentiments. Further, strength in the DX will add downside pressure in the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned or reversal can be seen as a result of forecast for favorable German consumer climate data.

Technical Chart – Euro

Technical Outlook valid for November 27, 2013Trend Support Resistance Euro/INR Nov’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 84.40/84.20 84.80/85.

GBP/INR

The Sterling Pound gained around 0.4 percent yesterday on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, optimistic market sentiments in later part of the trade acted as a positive factor.

The Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.6219 and closed at 1.6213 on Tuesday.

Outlook

From the intra-day perspective, we expect Pound to trade on a negative note on account of weak market sentiments. Additionally, a stronger DX will also act as a negative factor for the Sterling Pound. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned or reversal can be seen as a result of expectations of favorable GDP data from the country along with forecast for rise in realized sales data of the UK.

Technical Chart – Sterling Pound

Technical Outlook valid for November 27, 2013 Trend Support Resistance GBP/INR Nov’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 100.90/100.70 101.30/101.50

JPY/INR

The Japanese Yen appreciated around 0.4 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in market sentiments in early part of the trade which led to rise in demand for low yielding currency. However, sharp upside in currency was restricted due to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) expressed concern over reaching the target inflation of 2 percent, thereby indicating monetary easing for a longer period. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 101.13 and closed at 101.30 on Tuesday.

Outlook

Appreciation in the Yen is expected in today’s trade as a result of rise in risk aversion in market sentiments which will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency.

Technical Chart – JPY

Technical Outlook valid for November 27, 2013 Trend Support Resistance JPY/INR Nov’13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 61.50/61.30 61.80/61.90

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